5 Tool Talk - Draft-Related Baseball Notes

College Notes 2-26-11

The second weekend of college baseball has come and gone, with a handful of pitchers making names for themselves in the early part of the season. Texas’ Taylor Jungmann pitched his second consecutive complete game shutout, Virginia’s Danny Hultzen has a 25 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his first 13+ innings of work, and one of the best weekend pitching matchups between Gonzaga’s Ryan Carpenter and Texas A&M;’s John Stilson lived up to its billing. Of that group, I was able to catch Jungmann, Carpenter and Stilson on Friday night, as well as Adam Conley and Austin Wood on Saturday.

Taylor Jungmann

Jungmann is a machine. Almost every time I have seen him pitch he looks like the exact same pitcher. He commands his fastball extremely well, and he does job dropping in a nice curveball. He also throws a good changeup, and in particular threw a very good one to Kolton Wong to induce weak contact. His fastball has some run to it, and is very difficult to hit hard since he does a very good job changing speeds and upsetting hitter’s timing. There is a little effort to his delivery and a noticeable head snap, but overall his arm action works well. He reminds me quite a bit of Anthony Ranaudo in that he throws three very good, but not great, pitches for strikes, with good size and a great natural sense for pitching.

Ryan Carpenter

Gonzaga traveled to College Station to take on Texas A&M; for the weekend, creating arguably the best pitching matchup of the weekend between lefty Ryan Carpenter and righty John Stilson.

Carpenter is a pitcher I had heard quite a bit of, but had limited exposure to. I was really impressed first and foremost with his smooth delivery and overall mechanics. He repeated his release point better than any other pitcher I have seen so far this year, and commanded his fastball fairly well. There is still some inconsistency to his control and secondary stuff, but it’s hard not to be impressed with his size, delivery and fastball velocity.

Reports had his velo in the 86-91 range in this game. The Aggies hitters had a hard time catching up with his fastball in this game, as he did a pretty good job moving it around the zone, elevating it when he needed to get a punchout. His breaking ball is something between a curve and a slider, with more of a sweeping break, a pitch that could stand to have more bite to it. He threw a few changeups, but his fastball is clearly his best pitch, at least on this day.

John Stilson

Seeing Stilson start was something I wanted to make sure I saw early this season after serving as a closer last year with impressive statistical results. His delivery isn’t quite as violent as I remember, and his fastball sits in the 90-94 range. His slider is still a nasty pitch, that explodes down and away from right-handed batters. He also took a lot off of his slider when getting his slow curve over for strikes, a pitch that had also had sharp downward break.

The one interesting part of his delivery is that there seems to be more effort throwing his fastball than his breaking pitches. His release point was higher and there was a noticeable head snap. He went nine innings deep in a game that went to extra innings in a scoreless tie (Texas A&M; won in the 11th).

Physically he is built like a middle infielder, with sloped shoulders and good athletic proportions. Not surprising, since he came to Texas A&M; as a two-way talent. He has a competitive nature on the mound and is stuff is just as nasty in a starting role as it was in relief a year ago.

Adam Conley

Physically, Conley reminded me a little of Ross Detwiler from a few years ago, and I think Conley could enjoy a similar rise up this spring if he continues to pitch as he has. Conley is tall and lean with long wiry strong limbs. He has an electric arm, throwing from a low three-quarters delivery somewhat similar to Matt Purke. Also like Purke and a pitcher like Tim Lincecum, in which his intensity on the mound is clearly evident.

It was mighty cold in Pullman, Washington on this day, as it didn’t even reach 20 degrees, yet Conley was throwing bullets. He consistently worked on the outside half of the plate to right-handed hitters, and started the game throwing a lot of fastballs that the UC Santa Barbara hitters couldn’t catch up with, reitring the first 11 batters he faced. He dropped in a few slurvy breaking balls and pulled the string on a few changeups, but he was throwing mostly fastballs on this day. What makes his entire repertoire so effective is his ability to throw each with the exact same arm speed and overall delivery, as he didn’t seem to tip any of his pitches. Watch Conley’s name between now and June, and don’t be surprised to see him selected in the first round.

Austin Wood

Wood started out shaky over the first few innings. He was his own worst enemy, struggling to consistently find the strike zone, walking a few batters early, and eventually he was forced to get a few ‘get me over’ fastballs that were very hittable. After the first few innings, he started to find sync with everything, from his delivery and release point to the command on his fastball. Once that occurred, he started to throw more curveballs, and the more he threw the better of a job he did dropping them into the strike zone. The announcers mentioned that he was up to 94 on the day, although I always take such reports with a grain of salt (although not surprising based on past reports). He did give up one big bomb to Rendon in the third after walking him in the first. In their next matchup, Wood froze Rendon on a changeup. After that he cruised to the seventh.

Wood has a big, obviously muscular frame, although that may be because he wears pants that appear to be a size or two too small. Whenever I see a big, athletic righty such as Wood I always think of Andy Benes, and Wood profiles as a very similar pitcher. Obviously consistency is key for Wood, but I was impressed by how he got better as the game progressed. He has obvious first round talent.

Ricky Oropesa

I wasn’t paying too much attention to Oropesa or Rendon as profiled below, but it’s hard not to notice Oropesa’s frame. I’ve seen him plenty of times before, as his power potential is one of the best pure tools available for this year’s draft. His swing can still get plenty long, but he also shows the ability to shorten his stroke at times and can muscle even poorly hit balls further than most. I know some still list him as a 1B/3B, but his future is clearly at first base. He’s a good overall athlete with a strong arm, and plays first well, but doesn’t have the first-step quickness necessary to play the hot corner.

Anthony Rendon

As with Oropesa, most of my focus was on Austin Wood in this game, but it was impossible not to take notice of Rendon, almost universally considered the top overall prospect eligible for this year’s draft. As I’ve noted before, his enthusiasm for the game is evident, as is the ease in which he plays it. He takes a ton of pitches, rarely swings at a bad ball, and the ball jumps off of his bat. He puts effortless swings on pitches, including the thigh high fastball from Wood that he crushed down the left field line for a solo shot. His hands and overall bat speed are so incredibly quick, and while he DH’d in this game, I have also see him play defense with the same kind of ease. He’s a premium and rare talent that should fly to the big leagues with an overall profile similar to Ryan Zimmerman.

Jayce Boyd

I also caught a mid-week game between Florida State and Jacksonville that allowed me to watch a pair of potential 2012 first-round picks in FSU’s Jayce Boyd and Jacksonville’s Adam Brett Walker.

I caught Boyd several times last year, and he looks pretty much the same this year. He has a great approach at the plate with a level, line-drive swing. He reminds me a little of a young Edgar Martinez, prior to Martinez bulking up, with long, wiry strong limbs. Most of his power is gap-to-gap, but there is some good extension and bat speed to his swing that will lead to his fair share of homers. He would serve himself well if he could continue to play third base or even a corner outfield spot. He drilled a hanging curveball to left-centerfield in this contest for a double, something he seems to do every time I watch him play. He is somewhat of a ‘tweener since he doesn’t have the ideal power potential for first and may not have the lateral movement necessary for third.

Eric Arce

Arce is a left-handed hitting slugger that came to Florida State as a catcher. He’ll likely spend the year as the team’s DH, as he was used on this day, with the presence of Rafael Lopez. He has good size and is relatively physically mature whose frame somewhat resembles Jeff Clement’s. I don’t want to make the judgement since I didn’t see him behind the plate, but I question his ability to stay there long-term since his actions look a little stiff. His upside is at the plate anyway, and while he only had one at-bat in this game, you can tell with his patience, swing and strength he will put up some impressive power numbers before his college career is through.

Hunter Scantling

Scantling is a big fella that resembles a right-handed verison of CC Sabathia. He lands rather tall and stiff on his plant leg, and didn’t appear to be particularly over-powering. He threw a lot of fastballs to begin with, working on the outside half of the plate, particularly to right-handed batters. He started to mix in some good sweeping slurvy curveballs that he did a good job dropping in for strikes. I could see Scantling progressing as a one inning reliever, as he does a good job using his height to throw from a downward plane.

Adam Brett Walker

Walker was named the top prospect in the Great Lakes League last summer, leading the circuit in home runs. His home run potential is nearly limitless, with a big, strong body that somewhat resembles Frank Thomas. John Mayberry, Jr. may be a more recent, relevant comparison, since there are significant concerns about Walker refining his approach and shortening his swing. He likely will always be susceptible to strikeouts, but by how much will determine how far he progresses. At the plate is looked as though he was guessing more than he should have been given some of his swings. He is well built with strong, muscular proportions and sloped shoulders, but he may have to move from right field to first base at some point since his size may limit his foot speed. He hit 16 home runs as a freshman, but again, he needs to make a lot of adjustments between now and June of 2012 to have a legitimate chance to go in the first round.

Dan Gulbransen

Both Walker and Gulbransen were interesting to me, since both hail from Wisconsin. Gulbransen looks like a left-handed hitting version of Gabe Kapler, with a muscular and well defined build. He has sloped shoulders and good bat speed, but can take some mighty hacks. He has the tendency to fly open, but showed the ability to shorten his swing with two strikes. He could be selected among the top 10 rounds this coming June if he continues to put up good numbers while playing well enough in centerfield.

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Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft